The rates of Infection with the Coronavirus fell in Germany, according to data from the RKI significantly.
According to the on Thursday evening (16.04.2020) published the statistics, every Infected is currently far less than another people, the so-called reproduction rate (R) is 0.7.
Ten Infected plug in only seven other people – which means that the number of daily new Infections is declining.
Reproductive number must be below 1
“The R-estimate for the beginning of March, values in the range of R equal to 3, the decrease after that, and since the 22. March to R equal to 1 to stabilize,” it said from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).
Background: at Is a man more than another, the value is about 1, the number of infections. A value below 1 slacken off an epidemic after and after.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel had made in the Wake of the announcement of the first relaxation in Corona-measures on Wednesday that even seemingly small Changes in the reproduction number can have significant consequences.
In addition, experts such as for other countries expect Germany, with a high number of unreported cases of non-scheduled cases.
RKI-President Lothar Wieler had also said that an easing of the measures, not only the reproduction number is relevant, but also the proportion of immune people in the population, as well as the capacity of the health system.
Nevertheless, only a slower decline in new cases
A consideration of the development according to age groups show that the predicted number of cases per 100,000 population in the age group followed by the rise of 80 years is particularly strong, it was now by the RKI. “This will show up probably in a greater increase in the number of hospitalised cases and ICU cases.”
The Virus after the age of 18. March-even among the elderly spread, and are increasingly seeing outbreaks in nursing homes and hospitals, is the RKI, according to the reason of the decline of the new happen cases, in spite of the severe measures only relatively slowly.
“Another aspect is that in Germany, the test of capacity had been increased and by increasing the Test an overall larger part of the infections will be visible.” This structural effect and the consequent increase in reporting numbers could lead to the current R-overestimate the value of the real something to Happen.
Source
- an der Heiden M, Hamouda O: estimation of the current development of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Germany, Nowcasting, last accessed on 16.04.2020 https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/17_20_SARS-CoV2_vorab.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa)
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