With around 3.9 million documented infections in the US are the most from Coronavirus-affected countries in the world. Not all cases of infection are included in the official statistics are now showing data from antibody tests that have been published by the American health authority “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention” (CDC). Accordingly, in the USA, significantly more people with the Coronavirus infected than previously known.
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For the analysis, researchers compared data from antibody tests with the official infection figures from ten US regions, including New York, the former Corona-Hot-Spot. The comparison revealed major differences: The number of Infected was in each of the regions at times of 2 to 13 Times higher than the Region’s reported cases.
Calculation Example The Metropolitan Area Of New York
The Dimension of this projection shows the example of the Metropolitan area of New York with more than 18 million inhabitants: Up to 1. April had infected there 53.803 people confirmed with the Coronavirus. Antibody tests from this period indicates a much stronger infection to happen: According to calculations, the number of cases of infection could have been located with 642.000 cases, about 12 Times as high. The estimate includes, however, fluctuations of several tens of thousands of cases in both directions.
Extended test capacity, helped to reduce the number of unreported cases in the following weeks. At the beginning of may there were in the Region of 282,000 proven cases. According to the anti-body tests, the actual number of Infected is likely to have been located at this time can be estimated at around 2.8 million – and still more than ten Times as high.
“Always expected”
Carl Bergstrom, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of Washington, showed that, given these Figures, it is not as much of a surprise: “For epidemiologists, this is no shock and no Surprise at all,” he told the New York Times. “We have always expected that only about ten percent of the cases are reported.”
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How many investigations has also weaknesses in this study: The blood samples for antibody testing are from patients who had gone for Routine examinations in hospitals. Possibly, this group is due to pre-existing conditions are not representative of the General population. A well-known disadvantage of these blood tests is that antibodies in some patients only for a short time, undetectable. Estimates on the Basis of these Tests, therefore, are generally “conservative,” to emphasize the CDC experts, which means: it is possible that not all patients with prior Corona, have been recognized in the infection.
Light infections with no symptoms
But why so many infections are not diagnosed and are not included in the official statistics? One reason could be asymptomatic infections, believes the author of the Study, Fiona Havers from the CDC: “Many of these people probably had no symptoms or were only ill easily. You may have no idea that they were infected.”
According to a Review in the “Annals of Internal Medicine” could run between 40 to 45 percent of all infections with the Coronavirus without symptoms. Infected, the Virus could give so unknowingly more. Even apparently healthy people should wear masks, observe minimum clearances and regularly wash your hands, emphasizes Havers.
The current investigation is likely to raise hopes, that in some places, a herd immunity could be achieved against the Coronavirus. But that is not expected. Even in highly affected regions, such as New York, the infection rate would, according to the opinion of experts is not sufficient.
Also, it is currently still unclear whether and how long a former Covid-19-patients after they survived the disease are immune to the pathogen.
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) / New York Times
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